Who will inherit Raila’s Coast base ahead of 2027?

The death of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga on October 15 last year opened a battle for political control of the Coast region, which he commanded for decades.

The Coast, comprising Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu and Taita-Taveta counties, was one of Raila’s key support bases, with the former Prime Minister enjoying strong political loyalty in the region since the formation of ODM in 2005.

Now, those positioning themselves to inherit Raila’s coastal base include Mining Cabinet Secretary Ali Hassan Joho, East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) MP Hassan Omar Hassan, Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF) leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Nyali MP Mohammed Ali.

The region had approximately 1.96 million registered voters in the 2022 General Election, according to Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) statistics.

Mombasa had 642,362 registered voters, followed by Kilifi with 588,842, Kwale with 328,316, Taita-Taveta with 182,126, Tana River with 141,110 and Lamu with 81,468.

Raila’s influence at the Coast was evident in successive presidential elections.

In the 2007 General Election, he overwhelmingly won the former Coast Province after campaigning on issues including regional devolution and land reforms, which resonated with coastal voters.

In 2013, Raila maintained his grip on the region while running under the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), with Kalonzo Musyoka as his running mate. He won all six coastal counties.

He repeated the feat in 2017 under the National Super Alliance (NASA), again winning all six counties against President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Raila secured approximately 801,070 votes across the region in 2017, compared with Uhuru’s 288,646.

In 2022, Raila, then running under the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, again won all six coastal counties, although his cumulative vote haul fell to 649,913.

President William Ruto made significant inroads into the region, particularly in Mombasa, where Raila received 161,015 votes against Ruto’s 113,700. Low voter turnout, including Mombasa’s 43.76 per cent, also affected Raila’s overall numbers.

With Raila gone, the question now is who can consolidate his political inheritance.

Joho, a close ally of Raila, has increasingly positioned himself as the region’s potential political heir.

Since his appointment as Mining Cabinet Secretary by President William Ruto in July 2024, Joho has openly backed the Kenya Kwanza administration, describing it as responsive to the Coast’s needs, particularly on the long-running land question.

He has also proposed the formation of a Coast-only political party to unite the region.

At the same time, Joho has made clear that his ambitions extend beyond the Coast.

Mimi nikiangalia siku za usoni, mimi ni siku moja nataka kuwa rais wa Kenya,” Joho said, expressing his ambition to become President of Kenya.

He has urged Coast residents to support Ruto in 2027, arguing that a second Ruto term could create an opportunity for more inclusive leadership.

“Arudi term ya pili ashikane na Raila, waweke usawa. Ukifika 2032, rais wa Kenya atakuwa Hassan Ali Joho,” Joho said last year.

Hassan Omar, meanwhile, is seeking to build his own political influence through his position as UDA Secretary General and his coastal roots.

A former Mombasa senator who unsuccessfully contested the Mombasa governorship in 2017, Hassan shifted his political allegiance to Ruto’s UDA and was appointed the party’s Secretary General in 2024.

Kalonzo, on the other hand, is banking on his long political association with Raila.

Kalonzo was Raila’s running mate in 2013 and 2017 and supported his presidential bid in 2022, when Martha Karua was his running mate.

“Setting his eyes in 2027 if elected the Opposition’s flagbearer, Kalonzo is banking on his political loyalty to Raila to get the 2027 support,” said Muthoka Mwanzia, a Kilifi-based political analyst.

He, however, said turning that loyalty into votes would be a major test for Kalonzo.

“Despite Kalonzo pitching tent here, it is still not guaranteed that the region will return the favour. He will have to compete with the likes of Joho in the scramble for the region’s votes,” Mwanzia said.

He said ethnic and regional considerations could shape the Coast’s political direction ahead of the 2027 elections.

“Due to the ‘cousins’ slogan being advanced by the opposition, Kalonzo may get support from members of his Kamba community. This adds to other ethnic groups in the matrix like Kikuyus and the Mijikenda,” he said.

For Ali, popularly known as ‘Jicho Pevu’, the analyst said the two-term Nyali MP still had a long way to go before commanding regional support.

“Ali is positioning himself for the Mombasa governorship in 2027 but must first strengthen his profile beyond his Nyali political base,” the analyst said.

Ali was recently appointed as Wiper Deputy Party Leader designate.

The contest to succeed Raila at the Coast is therefore likely to become one of the key political battles ahead of 2027, with each contender seeking to convert personal networks, ethnic ties, party machinery and development credentials into the region’s influential voting bloc.